Boeing has released its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), projecting a demand for nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years. The forecast, announced ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, represents a 3% increase in airplane deliveries compared to previous projections.
The CMO predicts that the global commercial fleet will grow by 3.2% annually through 2043, with passenger air traffic rising at an average of 4.7% per year. This growth comes as air travel has fully recovered from the pandemic-induced slump and even surpassed pre-pandemic levels.
Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing, stated, “This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges.”
According to the forecast, single-aisle airplanes will account for 76% of commercial deliveries, with 33,380 new aircraft expected. The global widebody fleet is projected to more than double. Emerging markets and the global single-aisle market will remain primary growth drivers, with South Asia expected to lead passenger traffic growth at 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia at 7.2% and Africa at 6.4%. Eurasia is projected to lead all markets with 22% of total airplane deliveries.
The CMO also forecasts a $4.4 trillion demand for commercial services, driven by maintenance, modification options, and digital solutions aimed at increasing efficiency. Boeing expects the commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new personnel to support the expansion, including pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew.
The company’s projections indicate that about half of the new deliveries will replace older jets with more fuel-efficient models, contributing to improved sustainability in the aviation sector.
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