Air Canada’s arrival shakes up the Vancouver-Manila air travel market

The Vancouver-Manila route is set to become a key battleground for two major international airlines, Philippine Airlines (PAL) and Air Canada, as they prepare to compete for passenger share. With PAL’s established presence and Air Canada’s planned entry in April 2025, the competition is expected to intensify, offering passengers more options and potentially affecting fares.

Maintaining dominance

PAL, the flag carrier of the Philippines, has long been the dominant airline on the Vancouver-Manila route, offering daily flights year-round. PAL operates with a Boeing 777-300ER, providing 370 to 393 seats per flight, depending on the aircraft configuration.

The configuration varies because PAL currently has two ex-Garuda Indonesia 777s, fitted with 393 seats vs 370 on the original PAL configuration, in its arsenal. The Filipino airline opted not to reconfigure the aircraft to PAL’s hard product but instead immediately deployed it for regional and North American routes.

According to a post from AeroRoutes, it seems more likely that PAL is upping its capacity on the Manila-Vancouver market by dedicating 393-seat 777s to the route, flying daily. With that, we can deduce that the sector is highly competitive and high-yielding for the flag carrier. That comes without surprise, as PAL has long claimed that its North American operations are its bread and butter.

With weekly seat capacity ranging from 2,590 to 2,751, PAL maintains a substantial market share, particularly appealing to passengers traveling for Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) and for leisure purposes. PAL has the upper hand since higher frequencies will ensure flexibility for travelers, whether booking early or last minute.

A new entrant with competitive features

Air Canada is set to launch service on the route in April 2025, introducing a new competitor. Initially, the airline will operate three flights per week using the Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner, which is a newer and more fuel-efficient aircraft that accommodates 298 passengers per flight. Starting in May 2025, Air Canada will increase its service to four flights per week, offering a total of 894 seats per week in April and 1,192 seats per week in May.

Air Canada’s focus on premium service, including modern amenities and a 1-2-1 configuration in business class, positions it as a strong contender for business travelers and those seeking higher-end service. The Canadian carrier’s passengers will be offered three service classes: Signature Class, which offers lie-flat seats, Premium Economy, and Economy.

In comparison, PAL’s original, 370-seat 777s are configured with 2-3-2 seats in Business Class and 3-4-3 in Economy Class. Meanwhile, the recently added 393-seat 777s are configured with 1-2-1 in Business Class and 3-3-3 in Economy Class.

And suppose PAL continues to deploy the 393-seat 777s on this route. In that case, it will only be a match against the newer hard product of Air Canada if PAL maintains a significant price advantage. This might change, however, with the arrival of PAL’s brand-new Airbus A350-1000s beginning in late-2025.

The Canadian flag carrier’s departure from Vancouver (AC-17) will be at 1:55 a.m., arriving in Manila at 6:20 a.m. the following day, with the return flight (AC-18) departing Manila at 9:25 a.m. and landing in Vancouver at 6:20 a.m. on the same day.

Market impact and competition outlook

The entry of Air Canada is expected to shake up the market, especially as it gradually increases its flight frequency. However, PAL still holds a significant advantage with its higher weekly seat capacity and more flexible scheduling. As Air Canada seeks to establish its presence, its state-of-the-art Dreamliner fleet will likely attract premium passengers. At the same time, PAL will continue to cater to the needs of economy and business class passengers, leveraging its experience and local market knowledge.

We randomly selected days between April and October 2025, when both PAL and Air Canada operate one-way flights from Vancouver to Manila. The analysis reveals that, on average, Air Canada offers Economy Class fares approximately 7.5% lower than PAL. While this comparison provides a general idea of fare differences, it is important to note that factors like booking time, seat availability, and additional fees may affect overall pricing. Passengers should consider these variables when making their decision.

With Air Canada’s planned increase in frequency to 4x weekly and PAL’s daily service, the competition on this route is set to intensify. This will provide passengers with more choices, and we can expect potential fare adjustments and improvements in service quality as both airlines compete for market share.

In the long run, the ultimate winner will be the passenger. More choices and better service are on the horizon, making this an exciting development for travelers between Canada and the Philippines.